2025 vs 2026: What’s Actually Changing in the Gold Coast Property Market

spantaleo
Jan 23
3 min read

There are many theories of what the market will be show for 2026.

But the truth is more interesting.

In many ways, the Gold Coast property market feels similar to last year. Buyers remain confident, steady demand and strong fundamentals. But underneath the surface, the market’s shift from broad growth to smart growth is more meaningful than most headlines suggest.

Here’s a look at how 2026 compares to 2025, and what it means for you.

A Slower But Still Positive Growth Environment

In 2025, many property markets along the Queensland coast posted strong gains. Now in 2026, national and regional forecasts suggest those gains are easing, but not reversing.

Analysts are forecasting continued price growth across Australian housing markets in 2026. Just at a more measured pace rather than the strong rises of recent years.

Specifically:

Some forecasts expect ongoing home value increases, albeit lower than the near 9% rise seen in 2025.
National forecasts predict price and rent highs supported by policy and household income improvements, balanced with affordability ceilings. (Source: Domain)
Property commentary suggests fragmented growth, with markets performing differently suburb by suburb rather than uniformly. (Sourec: PropertyUpdate)

On the Gold Coast specifically, analysts expect 2026 growth to be stronger than many other regions, helped by population growth outpacing supply and ongoing lifestyle demand.

Lending and Borrowing Is Still Key.

But It’s Also Now About Confidence

In 2025, the primary theme was rate shock and adjustment. Many buyers were finding their feet with changes to borrowing costs.

In 2026, borrowing conditions are stabilising, and what matters most is confidence.

Forecast reports suggest that as affordability ceilings ease and real incomes grow modestly, buyers are returning to the market more methodically (not emotionally) which supports sustainable growth.

This shift aligns with what many agents are seeing on the ground: prepared and informed buyers are acting decisively, rather than buyers making decisions based on fear or speculation.

A Powerful Policy Shift: The First Home Buyer Scheme and the $1 Million Effect

One of the key forces shaping the 2026 market is the full rollout of the expanded First Home Buyer Scheme, which took effect from 1 October 2025. The updated scheme removed income caps and limits on places, while increasing property price thresholds.

In Queensland, eligible first-home buyers can now purchase homes valued up to $1 million with a 5 percent deposit and no Lenders Mortgage Insurance, significantly lifting buying capacity at this price point.(Source: Australian Government)

The impact is already clear.

Competition has intensified below $1 million, as more first-home buyers enter the market and prioritise properties within the scheme’s cap. At the same time, price sensitivity has increased around the threshold, with homes just below $1 million attracting stronger demand than those above it.

While the scheme improves access to ownership, industry commentary suggests it also adds pressure at the very price points first-home buyers are targeting, as policy-driven demand continues to meet limited supply. (Source: Domain Forecast Report 2026)

Supply Is Still a Defining Factor, Especially Locally

In both 2025 and 2026, supply (or the lack of it) continues to shape outcomes.

Industry data shows that construction pipelines, especially for units, are slowing, with fewer completions expected in 2026 compared with 2025.

Limited supply has a predictable effect: well-presented, well-located homes continue to attract competitive interest, while homes that lack strategic positioning struggle for attention.

That’s why in 2026, quality matters more than quantity.