RBA Holds Rates at 3.6%: What Gold Coast Homeowners and Sellers Need to Know

spantaleo
Nov 7
5 min read

In November 2025 the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, a decision that was widely expected after hotter-than-forecast inflation data. While this means interest rates remain historically low, the backdrop is one of surging house prices and renewed buyer demand – especially on the Gold Coast, where property values are at record highs. In this context, Gold Coast homeowners and prospective sellers should understand how the RBA’s stance affects mortgages, equity and market conditions.

Coastal lifestyle in full swing – locals enjoying a sunny weekend at the Gold Coast markets, where community and fresh produce thrive

RBA Monetary Policy Decision

Rate unchanged at 3.60%: At the November meeting the RBA Board voted unanimously to keep the cash rate at 3.60%. This follows three cuts earlier in 2025 (February, May, July) that have already lowered borrowing costs for many mortgage holders.
Inflation rising: The RBA noted that inflation has “recently picked up.” Trimmed-mean inflation jumped to 3.0% year-on-year in the September quarter (versus 2.7% in June) and headline CPI hit 3.2% rba.gov.au. Governor Michele Bullock warned that if rates are “eased much further, do we think inflation will continue to come down?". In other words, the board was concerned that cutting again too soon might stall progress on inflation.
Board’s view: Bullock told reporters the board “basically just talked about holding and the reasons to hold” this month realestate.com.au. She emphasized that keeping rates unchanged would add “downward pressure on demand” at the margin and help get inflation back to the 2–3% target more quickly. The RBA’s official statement likewise stressed caution: earlier rate cuts may take time to fully impact the economy, and inflationary pressures remain higher than expected.
Outlook for cuts: With inflation shockingly “higher than expected” (and underlying inflation at the top of the target band), the board gave no signal of imminent easing. As Guardian economist reports noted, major banks and markets now see no further cuts until 2026 theguardian.com. In fact, some analysts suggest the RBA’s rate path is very flat – perhaps another cut next year, but not for a while. (The RBA’s November forecast itself assumes only one more 2026.

previous rate cuts have -

“restored borrowing power and raised confidence”

Impacts for Buyers

Borrowing power and competition: Even though rates haven’t just been cut further, the earlier interest rate cuts have already boosted borrowing power. With the cash rate 0.75 percentage points lower than mid-2024, many buyers can borrow significantly more for the same repayment than they could last year. The PropTrack report notes that these cuts have “restored borrowing power and raised confidence,” fueling renewed competition among buyers. In practice, this means buyers can stretch further – but they still face fierce competition. On the Gold Coast, limited new listings and many well-funded buyers (including interstate and downsizers) mean bidding wars are common. As one analyst puts it, “interest rates have moved lower this year… that has helped extend the national upswing”. In other words, buyers with pre-approved loans now may find they qualify for larger mortgages – but they will still often outbid other contenders.

1 in 10 homes sold in October were bought through the

5% Deposit Scheme

First-home buyers and guarantee schemes: First-home buyers have extra support boosting their demand. In October 2025, the Federal Government launched an expanded First Home Guarantee scheme (previously known as the FHOG/First Home Loan Deposit Scheme). This allows any eligible first-time buyer to purchase a home with only a 5% deposit and no lenders’ mortgage insurance (up to generous price caps, e.g. $1.5m in Brisbane/Gold Coast areas). In fact, about 1 in 10 homes sold in October was bought through this. This turbocharges first-home buyer competition: many young buyers who couldn’t previously afford a big deposit are now active in the market. On the Gold Coast, this has meant increased demand in the entry-level segment (apartments and modest houses). Note that economists still debate the scheme’s impact: the Government argues it has only a small effect on overall prices, whereas critics worry it adds to existing housing. In any case, buyers should be aware that many FHBs are receiving government help, which can make bidding for starter homes even tougher.
Competition for stock: Overall, the combination of steady low rates and government incentives has led to strong buyer competition. New figures from PropTrack and Cotality show national home prices rose ten months straight into late 2025, and the Gold Coast in particular has buyers flocking in. With listings remaining relatively scarce (due to both supply constraints and confident would-be sellers holding off expecting higher prices), buyers face a constrained market. As PropTrack notes, “renewed competition” is a hallmark of the current. In practical terms, buyers should be prepared for multiple offers and consider locking in financing or offers quickly. The good news is that the downward path of rates has improved affordability per se – but the offsetting high prices (and now many competing buyers) mean entering the market still requires careful strategy. source

Future Outlook

Rate expectations (2026): Going forward, the RBA will remain data-dependent. As of November 2025, markets largely rule out any rate cut until well into 2026. For example, the Reserve Bank’s own November forecasts assume just one more 25bp cut in 2026, while major banks (NAB, CBA, etc.) have pushed their first cuts out to mid-2026 or beyond. In the near term, most analysts expect rates to stay at 3.6% through early 2026. By mid-2026, if inflation is convincingly back in the 2–3% band, additional easing may resume. On the other hand, if inflation proves sticky, the RBA could hold rates or even hike again. In short, the prevailing consensus is a "wait and see" approach: no imminent moves, with cuts possible from late 2026 onwards as economy.

Read more about the Reserve Banks Statement of Policy Here

"Expect ongoing price gains throughout spring and into summer"

House price forecasts: With rates on hold and strong underlying demand, most forecasts see continued price growth, albeit more moderate than the frenzy of 2020–2022. Industry research suggests Gold Coast prices will likely keep rising in 2026, though perhaps in the mid-single-digit range. For context, Domain’s latest price report projects Brisbane (the nearest capital) house prices to grow about 5% in FY2026. after a similar gain in FY2025. (Unit prices in Brisbane are likewise forecast +5%. Given the Gold Coast’s attractiveness to lifestyle buyers and its tight supply, a similar trajectory is plausible. Indeed, Gold Coast market observers continue to predict further gains: one recent report notes analysts expect ongoing "price gains throughout spring and into summer.”(realestate.com.au). However, rising affordability pressures and a maturing market mean growth may slow. Sellers should plan for continued moderate growth, not double-digit leaps, and buyers should anticipate a gradually less frenetic market.
Sentiment and risk factors: Sentiment in the Gold Coast market remains optimistic but with a dose of caution. Many locals are enjoying rising home equity and are upbeat about demand. At the same time, some analysts warn that households’ stretched budgets (high debt, cost-of-living pressures) and the rapid prior price rise have cooled exuberance. Current risks to watch include inflation persistence (if prices or wages spike, the RBA might stay higher for longer), global economic shocks (international downturns can hit consumer confidence), and government policy changes (for example, if credit rules tighten or housing incentives alter). On the Gold Coast specifically, the impending 2032 Olympics adds a long-term positive undercurrent, but also invites scrutiny of over-development risks. Overall, the Bank itself notes heightened uncertainty on all fronts. For now, the stable rate and healthy fundamentals should keep the market on track, but both buyers and sellers should stay nimble in case conditions shift.

Final Thoughts

The RBA’s decision to hold rates solidifies current market conditions: sellers enjoy a pricing advantage, and buyers remain motivated but challenged. If you’re considering your next move, now is the time to review your position, whether that means selling, buying, or refinancing.

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